Board of Supervisors — 2020-04-13

You. I'll now call to order the April 13th, 2020 meeting of the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors and budget workshops for fiscal year 2020 and 2021. Would the clerk please call the roll?

Mr. Adam?

Here.

Mr. Lavinino? Here. Mr Williams? Here Ms Hartman? Here Chair Hart?

of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation under God, indivisible with liberty and justice for all.

CEO Miyasato is there a CEO report today?

There's no report chair.

Thank you. Madam Clerk are there any announcements or changes to our agenda?

Chair Hart and members of the board, I have no changes to our agenda today but I do have a couple quick announcements. I did want to just remind the public once again that there are multiple ways to participate in our meeting and if a member of the public would like to submit a comment letter for the board whether it's on an item on today's budget workshops or not you can email the clerk at sbcobcountyofsb.org If you would like your letter to be read into the record, please state that in your email.

We are also allowing participation via phone and if you'd like to comment on any item on our agenda today or during general public comment, please call 805-568-2240 as you'll see scrolling on the top of your screen. State your name, your phone number and which item you'd like to speak on and the clerk will call you at the appropriate time Please make every effort to be available and mute all streaming devices once it is your turn to speak.

And during budget workshops today, I did want to also note for the public that there will be an opportunity for public comment provided at the conclusion of general overview, each functional group presentation, and each special issue. And my final announcement this morning is we did have a few Inquiries on whether we are allowing media in our hearing room this morning, and we are. And so if there any members of the media that are watching now and would like to participate in our hearing room you can come to our county building at 105 East Anna Pamu Street.

And the members of general services staff will escort you up here. And those are all my announcements.

Thank you I think we do have somebody downstairs who's a member of the media who might be on their way up. So thank you for that. Now's the time

public comment today. Okay

thank you. The next item is departmental item number one could you please read that item into the record

Chair Hart and members of the board, departmental item number one is from the county executive office. It is a hearing to consider recommendations regarding a coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19 update

Good morning Chair Hart, members of the Board. I'd like to begin my update this week with a lot of thank yous so if I may. I would like to thank my team at the Public Health Department. We're seven weeks into the response we are not looking as fresh as we did on day one but the energy is still there, the commitment is still there and we are still going strong Secondly, I'd like to thank every county department. I can't imagine any department that hasn't sent staff to the Public Health Department or to the EOC. Thank you for contributing to this effort for the long hours.

And lastly, I would like to thank the CEO's office for their leadership, for their guidance and for making resources available for us to respond. I think that this crisis has shown me that we are strong as a county because we work together, we collaborate together and we partner together through the thick and thin. So thank you.

And thank you Dr. Dobernoser for all the work and energy and creativity that you're bringing to this effort on a daily basis. Appreciate you recognizing your staff and all the other county employees too.

I'd like to begin with our COVID-19 by the numbers here in Santa Barbara County. As of yesterday, we have 267 cases and of those 162 are active. On your right are cases by the area with City of Santa Maria leading at 64. The Lompoc Federal Prison with 47 and that number has changed. With 41, City of Santa Barbara 35. Community of Orchid 27. South County Unincorporated Area at 16. North County Unincorporated Areas at 15. Unincorporated Areas of Goleta Valley and Gaviota at 11. City of Golita at 5. Santa Ynez Valley at 5 and Community of Isla Vista at 1.

Case status, we have again this is just a different way of looking at the numbers. So I'm going to be showing you graphs from using pies using trends just so that you can get a flavor of the numbers. So we have this yellow line reflects the total number of cases as of yesterday at 267 And then you have this blue line right here, ending yesterday at 162. These are the 162 active cases and the gray line following here 105 are fully recovered.

Yesterday we had three new cases and again we've experienced two deaths during this pandemic here in our county. So as you recall, the number of people hospitalized is something that we're very mindful of. It's something that we're watchful of. It is something that we monitor on a daily basis and here is a chart that describes the total number of people hospitalized since March 31st and with ICU as a subset So we are, there's really, we're leveling off but that's only one day. So this is really premature. This is very things are evolving and the ICU is holding steady between 17 and 18 and that is the orange line.

This is another way of looking at the cases recovery status So the orange is the 39% of our cases recovered. The 43% describes our cases recovering at home with the 14%, the gray, describing cases that are hospitalized. Age distribution of cases so oftentimes We have heard that the sentiment that this is something that's really affecting only older people. But as you can see in Santa Barbara County, we have a pretty good spread of cases throughout the age groups.

Orange group describes cases in their 50s to 69. The 35 purple segment describes people in their 30s to 49, so that's pretty sobering. Over the weekend, we were made aware of a model coming out of LA County. And this is a pretty I think good graphic that talks about the projected impact of physical distancing on spread. So the orange line and this is something similar that I've described to you in previous briefings So the orange line describes never began, distancing hasn't begun.

The red line describes stopping the physical distancing. With the blue line holding steady way down here as maintaining current level of social distancing. With the green line almost touching zero, describing what would it look like if more stringent physical distancing measures were to be put into place? So the takeaway for me here is the blow up of the center graph. Where you see the divergence in the number of cases drastically increasing if we let go of social distancing.

What this really means is described in this graph, so this is a projection of infection in LA County. If physical distancing was to one, reduce to pre-order level So here in this model, it's anticipated that 96% of residents will be infected over the course of the pandemic by August 1st. However if physical distancing is to be maintained at current levels you see a more steady at about 30%.

And if LA County were to increase above current levels, meaning putting into place even more stringent measures then they would experience about a 6%, 5.5 rounding up to 6% increase. So this is ultimate protection of vulnerable population as well as the healthcare infrastructure. So what are the takeaways? So I maintain that social distancing is working. The current Governor's Executive Order N33-20, which was issued on March 19th will be in effect until further notice. What that means is that our local government can put into place Through health officer orders, more restrictive measures but we can't be less restrictive.

Our local data as we have been monitoring suggests that physical distancing and public health directives have slowed down the spread of COVID-19. What we are modeling today looks so much different than just the model that I updated you three weeks ago. Reduction in physical distancing behavior may lead to rapid increases in cases and high demand for hospital services beyond our current capacity.

As I showed you in the previous slide with L.A County, staying at home and physical distancing will allow our hospital system to maintain intact and to provide services to all who need that level of care. So that said, we are in continuous conversations with CDPH and discussing what the future might look like. So on Saturday all of the jurisdictions were invited to be part of a conversation with CDPH and we talked about when and how Would the state or regional or local would lift the order and what would that trigger look like? And if our assumptions from the get go was to protect the vulnerable, and strengthen the health care system. At what point do we loosen the reins? And what would that look like at the local level, at the regional level and at the state level?

So I share that with you to demonstrate that this is a difficult period in our history, in our county. Not only do we have to contain and mitigate COVID-19 but we also have to acknowledge these societal And so we're aware of that and we are in constant conversation, not only with Sacramento but with our regional partners as well. Coordinated response, again one to remind our community that there is constant access to information. Our website has daily updates and that is www.publichealthsbc.org. As community members as we struggle with the shelter at home Lack of essential services, lack of freedom and whatnot. We do have help available so our community wellness call center emotional support number is 888-868-1649.

As always 211 is available 24 7 for any additional questions or support and we are guided by CDC and CDPH in our response. That concludes my update for this week. And I am open for questions.

Thank you, Dr. Dorinoso. It's very helpful information. Questions for staff? Supervisor Hartman?

Just a clarification, will there be press conferences and if the public has questions can they direct questions to the media who can then ask them at the press conferences?

Yes. So our press conference is daily but however today's canceled and we will resume tomorrow at 430.

Any other questions any questions for Santa Maria?

Yeah, I think there's a couple up here. You want to go first?

Sure, I just had two. First off, I was asked by a number of people about masks as far as when they are required when you're out in public. I know a couple local grocers are requiring them. Is that individual businesses requiring them or is that part of our county public health directive? And if it's not part of the directive, is that going to happen? Or just give me the status of where we are with masks in public.

Supervisor Levinino through the chair, so for restaurants that face covering mandate is via our recently issued health officer order. The mask you're referring to, is that the mask that you are referring to?

No, I was more interested in grocery stores. So I know you have to wear one in a restaurant but what about at grocery store?

The grocery stores is right now it is up to the grocery stores but we are looking at expanding the need for other essential businesses to use face coverings. And it will be if when that time comes, it will be done through our health officer order in consultation with our county council.

Thank you one last question then and I'm looking at slide four which gives the hospitalizations and ICUs. And I guess this is probably better news than we had anticipated as far as a flattening of how those numbers originally increased and then leveled out. What is the capacity, when we talk about where that number is? What would that number have to get to before alternative care sites would be required? So what is the capacity of our local hospitals?

So it's roughly about 699. We had discussed a ramping up, even though while we are planning to stand up ACSs, we at 50% of that capacity would trigger us to speed up the standing up of those alternate care sites. So that's why we are monitoring the hospitalizations, the ICU and the vent usage on a daily basis. And not only do we get that data from the hospital real time but we are also validating those numbers via reports from CDPH.

Okay, great. So that's basically 700 hospital beds and then ICU has been basically staying static at 17, 16, 17, 18? Correct. So I'm assuming that we have the number for what that capacity looks like?

Yes, yes, we do.

All right, okay thank you.

Thank you Supervisor Levin. Supervisor Adam?

Thank you. Dr. Del Reno so have you ever heard of the term herd immunity?

Yes, I have.

Could you explain that for us please?

Sure, herd immunity depending upon diseases can be achieved through either vaccination or it could be achieved when a certain number of the population has been exposed to that disease.

But what would that mean?

So if you are referencing COVID-19, it means that a certain number of our population would have been exposed to the virus over a period of time. Thereby, a certain population is immune and that virus is transmitted at a lower pace

Okay, I'm glad that you know about that now. I just have one other thing. There's a guy named Brian Goble that is going to get interviewed today by Bill McFadden on the NewsHawk website and their location there on Facebook. And he's a very smart guy who has been working on analysis of the data. And I think he's got some very encouraging observations and analysis that everybody should listen to and take what they can from that.

Thank you. Yes, thank you for that. I was made aware of that opportunity so our team will be participating in that live interview and take the opportunity to learn more about his viewpoints.

Thank you.

Thank you very much. One thing that I have noticed as the conversation in the community is evolving to what next? You've described very well, what we have been doing and how successful physical distancing has been and how incredible the members of public throughout the county and the state have been in responding to that. And I think it would be helpful for you to describe a little bit about the complexity of going from, we are doing all of the personal hygiene. We are doing physical distancing and then what would be required to begin to loosen up some of the social distancing? I think what I've read is you need to be able to do robust testing of COVID. And that sounds like something that should be relatively easy to do. But it hasn't been for a variety of reasons, not related to the county of Santa Barbara.

Related to the availability of testing at the national level. Not just the availability of testing but if you take every piece of the testing process there have been shortages of supplies. There have been shortages of nasal swabs. There's been shortages of reagents. Files that are used to transport those tests to the labs. There are differences in the labs and the equipment that each of the labs uses, and so you can have a situation where you have extra capacity at one kind of machine that doesn't have capacity for another kind of machine. It'd be like trying to have a Ford steering wheel applied to a Chevy car. It doesn't work.

That's just for the COVID-19 testing. There has been questions about the efficacy of some of the testing. There is a question about if you have had COVID-19, whether or not that actually does confer immunity in the future. There is a great deal of scientific research being done about using serontology to determine antibodies There are a wide range of medical views about the effectiveness of that information and what that means for future infections. There is a huge issue of how you would scale that to be applicable into local communities and using that as a tool. And so, the reason I say all those things and ask you the question is it sounds relatively simple to say we're here and we need to get to there But getting there is incredibly complex and a massive logistical challenge.

And I think that is not clear at all to the public, and it would be helpful for you to take a little time to explain how complex that is.

Right. It is as complex as you've described. We need to get a handle on who's been infected, and we can only do that truly through testing. And only when we have tested widespread testing will we be able to quarantine, will we be able to do the contact tracing and then self-isolate and really hanker down and basically draw that box around the infections. However, that said testing is complex. There are testing that are done by the Public Health Department and that is where we get our ration from the state and then testing can also be done by the hospitals and they have their own platforms as you mentioned and it can be also done through a private medical group physician's office and they may choose any variety of the platforms to be tested.

What I'm encouraged by is the conversations in Sacramento about the need for increased testing and then also Going down the path of serology testing, and that's the Stanford task force that I think a lot of us have heard about. And that is something that I heard a rumor that could be up and going as soon as two or three weeks. And so we're hoping that once that is made available, a little bit more and see which members of our community has been exposed and may have that immunity. And on that immunity, as you mentioned, there's a wide variance of scientific literature. You see papers that say once you have demonstrated that you've been exposed, you could be 60% immune. I read somewhere this morning That there's a paper out of Italy that says only 10%.

So there's a wide variance. There's just, and I think that could be because we're so new into this. There are so many unknowns about the virus, about the mode of transmission, and about our immunity.

Thank you. Supervisor Williams, do you have questions?

Well, I'm very encouraged by you engaging in the conversations with California Department of Health with public health. Because it is, I think important for us to be part of the state conversation of how we move forward and how once certain benchmarks are reached that we could maintain a level of social distancing while lifting the stay at home order. It would take obviously a huge amount of thought, a huge amount of work.

to give the proper guidance for businesses and society to be able to function. But I do think it's a thought exercise that is really part of our mission to engage in, because the longer the stay-at-home order stretches, the more difficult it will be for families that are operating without incomes to survive. It's part of, we need to be part of that conversation of how to move forward.

I was really encouraged on the call on Saturday with CDPH about how open they were to hearing from the 58 counties and the three cities about the local struggles and what we grapple with. So, the information from the local jurisdictions, I think will be very critical to guide Sacramento in their decision making process.

Thank you. Any other questions or comments for staff? Next we'll go to public comments, are there any members of the public who'd like to speak on this item?

Chair Hart and members of the board, we have three requests to speak by phone on this item. And we will go to our first caller Anastasia Stone to be followed by Lee Heller and then Angela.

Hi, my name is Anastasia Stone and I live in District 2. about what we're looking at and how the stay-at-home order is affecting people in our district in the mental health capacity. Specifically, have we looked at stats regarding suicides, admissions to mental health and overdoses as those can be huge triggers with people stuck at home losing jobs income and various other things especially with no end in sight?

And I just wanted to thank Thank you, Doss for talking about really getting back to things and having a conversation about it because I believe that the kind of just no discussion about when we will get back to normal actually makes these mental health issues worse. I personally know someone who took their own life and was triggered by this continued stay at home

Thank you for that. We share your condolences for the loss of your friend. This is a very difficult time.

Chair Hart, members of the board we will now go to Lee Heller to be followed by Angela.

Thank you for all the hard work you and the staff are doing. This has been an extraordinary experience, and I'm in such great admiration of how hard everyone is working seven days a week to try to protect our community. I want to reassert a warning not to leap on data that seems to warrant physical distancing prematurely. Mr. Goebel has no experience in epidemiology nor distinguishing between different California communities Broad conclusion of the curve that we are seeing in California. As you know, Santa Barbara County is behind the curve of the larger cities. Our peak is not coming for a while yet but when you take his analysis into account consider the limitations of it. I think Dr. DeCorinos' presentation makes clear that we can't just assume a vulnerable population as one could wish That vulnerability is just more widely than we had been led by Chinese data.

So there's just no way to protect small group and let everything else go back to normal. I also want to let Dr., for Dr. Borenow, some comments about herd immunity. Herd immunity takes about 85% of the population having been exposed and protected, and we are nowhere near that yet. It's big from experience working for decades in the ant world. So as we move forward, Remember that, yes, economically people are really devastated by the stay at home orders. But if you leave them prematurely, the economy will crash again pandemic roars back and the very few people that are vulnerable now will be vulnerable again because they are already on the front lines of exposure. Thank you.

Thank you, Miss Heller.

Chair Hart members of the board will now go to our final speaker and that is Angela

Hi, I'm calling from Lompoc and over the weekend our City Councilman Mosby did a video conference where he actually graphed out the individual curves by cities in Santa Barbara County. And while most of the cities seem to be flattening everywhere they're not flattening in Lompoc. In fact we're accelerating and we're accelerating at almost the exact same rate as the federal prison. Lompoc Federal Prison has the worst cases of coronavirus second-worst cases of coronavirus for all federal prisons in the county What is the county planning to do about Lompoc? I didn't see them mentioned in the graphs at all and I haven't seen anything about contacting the Bureau of Prisons. Thank you.

Thank you very much.

And that was our final speaker on this item.

Are there any other questions, Supervisor Williams? Well just because I think that's an important question and we don't allow the public to ask questions during public comment but Supervisors can, so just ask to understand what is going on at Wampoa Federal Prison and what is our participation in it. And are you assured that they are taking the proper measures?

So we have been in contact with the leadership at the Lompoc prison, and starting with their first case. And their cases are growing at a fairly rapid pace. The public health department supported by the unified command at the EOC, we have a four track effort. So the first track is working with the Lompoc leadership to be able to get Sacramento to send down A self-contained hospital unit that comes with the beds, the equipment, the resources and the personnel. So that's our first track. The second track is being available through our Lompoc Health Care Center, being available to test any of the staff who wants to be tested so that we can see what's going on. And the third track...

The third track, okay.

I think we'll have plenty of opportunities to put out

the third track. I'm drawing a blank, I apologize. But regardless, we are, oh, I'm sorry. The third track is disease containment, of course and so hand in hand working with the prison leadership about how they are containing the spread of COVID-19 within their prison. So those three tracks are led by very seasoned members of my team, and now that we are supported by the unified command We are in conversations with the state. And we also are coordinating our lobbying, our advocacy for increased resources, critical timing with the hospital CEOs as well as our local, state and federally elected officials. Actually today we have two calls with the prison leadership.

And then just the previous person's question, I mean are we tracking or is Behavioral Wellness or some non-profit tracking the increase of suicidal ideality is I believe the term. And specific cases and other behavioral wellness problems that have arisen from the.

That's a great point, I think that there are in addition to the health impacts there are other impacts of COVID-19. I will be working with my colleagues in behavioral wellness to get that data, as well as with the sheriff and the DA's offices. To coordinate data about domestic violence, about child abuse, and as well as with unemployment. So those are the four major indicators that the state is also worried And so we were highly encouraged on Saturday to start looking at those impacts as well in our reporting.

Thank you. Thank you, any other questions and Santa Maria comments?

No I don't think so.

Okay, thank you very much. Thank you Dr. Doronoso for your presentation it's been very helpful I know the public everyone is very interested in knowing the most recent information and this has been very helpful we'll have another press conference tomorrow afternoon at 430 where we continue to answer any questions members of the media have and try to explain this very complicated subject. You know I think this is one of the most challenging things Certainly in my lifetime, communicating complex science and maybe even more difficult the complex logistics involved in responding to this crisis. I think people intuitively imagine that there are things and warehouses that can just come to a community and be deployed and be ready to go and get us where we would imagine we need to be.

And that has not proven to be the case. And in spite of that, we have been able to get the public to understand the stakes involved in this and more importantly, to act in a really incredibly powerful way to change the rate of infection in our community and throughout the state. In an awesome way, you know to understand that we could communicate to 40 million people in the state of California to all do the right thing and the vast majority comply and achieve that.

And avoid what would have been potentially catastrophic and that has not happened in other countries and other places around our country unfortunately. And so now it gets more complicated and more complex as to what to do next. And it's really encouraging to hear that those conversations are happening at the state level, they're happening with your colleagues around Southern California, it's happening here in our county as well. But there isn't a simple answer about when can people go back to work? That depends on our ability At the national level to have the testing capability, to make sure that we understand how many people have the virus. That is that fundamental basic question that needs to be answered to get to the next questions is not known at this point and all of these things are hard for folks to understand and it's hard for me to understand and I'm sure my colleagues feel the same way.

And we're doing the best we can on a daily basis, working really hard. And I think the public understands that and appreciates that and is willing to do the best they can to cooperate together and address this issue. So thank you for the information, and we will have more tomorrow. Thank you. Supervisor

Williams? You know, I was inspired by what you just said One of my observations is how powerful this proves collective action really is. This flattening of the curve that those graphs would indicate we as a community have been successful in doing, is only started by government. It's not actually executed by government. Fortunately, in this society, Enough coercive power in government to actually force you to do this, right?

People are staying at home because they have chosen to stay at home. Because they have chosen to adhere to the stay-at-home order and to me that's a tremendously powerful testament to people's ability to collectively act in the community's benefit. Because they are collectively acting in the community's benefit, even though in many cases it is causing them to lose their job or lose their business.

They are still taking that strong community action and that has saved lives. So to me, that should be a real cause of That it's inspirational that it doesn't take the course of power of government to do that as in other countries. It takes us acting collectively for the public good to accomplish that.

Thank you, Supervisor Williams. I'll now entertain a motion that we have A, B and C received file and the standard CEQA declaration. Is there a motion? So moved. Motion's been made and seconded, roll call please.

Mr. Adam?

Here.

Mr. Labanino?

Aye.

Mr Williams? Aye. Ms Hartman? Aye Chair Hart?

Aye

motion passes unanimously

thank you again for the presentation this takes us now to the scheduled agenda for fiscal year 2020-2021 budget workshops as a reminder There is an opportunity for public comment that will be provided at the conclusion of the general overview and after each functional group presentation, and each special issue. So there's multiple times throughout the day that folks can comment. We want to hear your input, and the clerk will repeatedly give you the access points to that as we go through the day's presentation. But now I'll turn over the presentation to County Executive Officer Miyasato.

Thank you, Chair Hart and board members. Good morning. You know as we start these budget workshops it's an understatement to say we're in uncharted territory. We all know that but I want us to remind everyone that we're one of 58 counties in one state of 50 states among hundreds of countries going through this so if anything there is comfort in that there is connection among all of us as we are going through this.

And it's irrational to say that we can continue business as usual, but yet we're trying to the extent that we can because society and our residents rely on the continuity of government in order for essential services to function. So that's why we are here today. So just a little bit about the purpose of the workshops and just to let you know your department heads are all online watching with an ability to participate should there be any questions So just again, the purpose of these workshops and to preface this.

The information provided you today was developed prior to the COVID-19 health emergency and generally presents a status quo budget. So today we're giving an overview of that preliminary information. We'll talk about the impacts of the pandemic in the months ahead. We'll give summaries of the department's budgets and their work efforts which have been provided to you online and in your book receive input and take any direction that you may want to offer at this time.

And so here's the agenda for today. I'm going to be setting the context, and then Jeff Rappwell, Assistant CEO and our Budget Director will be talking about trends in revenue and expenditures. Talking about the things we talk about every year which is our fiscal issues, maintenance funding, cannabis tax revenues. He and Paul Clemente will go over the functional groups. And then we have two special issues for you at the end of the day. One is on libraries and the planning and development long range work program that you asked for follow up to be presented, and then just some closing comments about looking forward.

So setting the context. The discussion you just had was pointing to the issue about when can we restart the economy? And we know that there are negative shocks to our economy in many Uncertainties and unknowns. And people talk about a recession, but what we really are is in a state of economic paralysis with the shutdown. Before that, California was actually growing at a modest pace and expected to grow at a modest pace for 2021. The state's budget was in pretty good shape as we know the governor in his January budget had talked about some program expansions.

So we know that there has been a sharp drop in economic activity and a lot of volatility in financial markets. And it's important to remember that our economy is made up relying upon consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the U.S. economy, and that is expected to decline. And the truth is no one really knows. There are many unknowns related to it and a wide range of potential outcomes. My office has reviewed many economic forecasts in the last few weeks, and there are varied opinions and predictions But again, people just don't know and it depends on where the course of the virus will take us.

But we have been evaluating them and looking at them for the demonstration of trends not necessarily for the accuracy of dates. So again, we're looking at these models for a demonstration of trends not necessarily accuracy of dates. And AJ Kinubeva is an analyst in my office he's been with the county for nine years. He just finished his master's degree from the Anderson School of Management Business.

And he's going to present the next few slides on the evolving economic outlook. AJ.

Thank you. The UCLA Anderson forecast released its economic outlook shortly after Governor Newsom declared a state of emergency and then also before this safe at home order was issued. On Friday, the UCLA Anderson forecast updated its forecast And then also downgraded its economic outlook. So the information presented on this slide does not reflect the most recent information provided by the forecast, however you may note that beginning this quarter and at least lasting through the end of September The forecast shows a two quarter recession, showing a drop in GDP of about 6.5%. The revised forecast shows a steeper drop of about 7.5%, continuing into next quarter dropping by about 3.2%.

The forecast anticipates that California, due to its exposure to tourism and Pacific transportation will be more severely impacted by the recession. And implicit in this forecast as well as in the revised forecast is a continued assumption that the abatement of As well as the accompanying safer at home orders will abate this summer. Any extension of the safer at home order and or the inability to address the virus would extend the recessionary impacts on our economy.

Unemployment is, the unemployment rate is expected to peak at more than 16% in California with approximately 2.2 million jobs lost and unemployment sorry employment in California will not return to previous peak levels until late 2020 As the shutdown has focused on services that are delivered person to person, we expect to see steep drops in leisure and hospitality. And because of tourism as well as transpacific transportation where housing utilities are also expected to be acutely affected.

So according to the last outlook, one third of jobs lost will be in the leisure and hospitality and transportation and warehousing sectors. Two of California's largest revenue sources, personal income tax and sales tax will be affected by any economic downturn. And funding from the federal and state government primarily for health and human services usually form the largest sources of county revenues.

Property taxes and sales taxes are the primary funding sources for many county services that do not have a dedicated state and federal funding source. And consumption of the sales tax revenue would be sensitive to a downturn. Earlier outlooks showed 2021 to be a recovery year and 2022 to be year of growth. However, due to the latest update in the outlook this is expected to be pushed later into late 2022. Thank

you AJ. So the slides AJ presented obviously are forecast we don't know but it shows a trend and it's important to note this is for the state of California. And why is that important to us? It's because as everyone knows For California counties, a large portion of our revenues are from the state and federal government. So almost 40%. So when the state's revenues especially from personal income are reduced that will certainly affect the county.

So looking at what else is going to affect the county, obviously we talked about TOT, transient occupancy tax, sales tax. And what's important to notice for sales tax, we get the Bradley Burns 1% sales tax and that's what we report as part of our discretionary general fund. In addition, sales taxes is collected by the state and redistributed to the counties for realignment from 1991 realignment in 2011 realignment.

And Prop 172. Those are significant resources for the county and so we will likely see a drop in those. In addition, gas tax just if people are driving less we expect that we will see reduction in gas taxes that we get through SB 1. Other revenues at risk of decline or interest income and also departments collect revenues based on reimbursements and also fee-based revenues. So for example if there reduced people coming to our parks. That would reduce their fees as well.

The one thing to note is that cannabis tax revenues are not expected to decline, and I've talked to some of my colleagues in other counties and cities, and they're all seeing the same thing. They do not expect cannabis tax revenues to have any major reduction so that isn't going to be helping our budget and we'll talk about that a little bit later. This chart is just to show our property tax revenue trends Doesn't show projections into the future, but our trends. And as you know we, as a county, we rely heavily on our property tax revenues. It makes up the bulk of our discretionary general fund revenues and so what this chart shows is in the red are the last recessions that we've had beginning in 1990-91. The middle one was the dot com crash and then the great recession with the housing market crash.